Whatever Came of Natural Immunity?
Unless the vaccines improve dramatically, there is only one path to herd immunity.
As the vaccines show their true colors (unlike our masked populace), we are learning that these medicines only provide short term protection. However, are the vaccines delaying herd immunity? Do the vaccines weaken natural immunity? Could the vaccines possibly be intended to keep this “crisis” around as long as possible? If when vaccinated, you become a “breakthrough case”, do you attain the same level of immunity as a normal case (positive COVID test without the vaccine)? Unfortunately, we do not have answers to all of these questions. However, I contend, we do not need the answer. The solution to this problem has not changed in all of human history. It lies in natural immunity and herd immunity. Unfortunately, it is looking more and more like the vaccines, are delaying our arrival at herd immunity.
Let’s switch gears. What is natural immunity? Simple, if you came in contact with COVID-19, and currently we have had close to 40 million confirmed cases in the USA, then you have natural immunity. That 40 million number, however, is quite deceiving. Those are the people that have tested positive. But, what about those people that came into contact with COVID and never had a test? A number of studies have looked into what is the factor of confirmed cases to real cases. These studies test people at random for immunity. If you have immunity then you are asked were you tested and received a positive result for COVID? We are finding that for each confirmed case there could be as many as 4-16 times the number of unconfirmed cases. Using a factor of 4, which is low and in all likelihood a bare minimum, we can assume (I know the acronym) that 160 million Americans probably have immunity to the virus without a vaccine. So called experts and the CDC put that number at 120 million. Again, I believe that number is low.
Almost all data, of which we have much, points to natural immunity lasting at bare minimum a year, and in all likelihood a lifetime. This is significant because it is the only current path to herd immunity. What is herd immunity? That means enough people have immunity such that the virus cannot find a new host in which to spread and eventually the virus goes away.
Let’s consider 3 very recent studies. I suggest that you go to the search engine DuckDuckGo and do your own research. DuckDuckGo is a search engine like Google. For some reason it seems to return more neutral results. Google seems to return results that favor a certain narrative.
Cleveland Clinic Study
Nearly 3,000 participants with natural immunity were studied (out of a total population of 50,000 patients). A total of ZERO of these patients became reinfected after 150 days of testing. This is the only group that came out with zero reinfections. Below is a chart, study the red and blue lines. Starts at zero finishes at zero. Notice the black lines, which is no previous infection, but vaccinated. It does bump up. Very compelling evidence.
Rockefeller University Study
This very recent study concludes that natural immunity is much more powerful than the short term immunity given to us by the vaccines. This from the study documents:
Meanwhile, researchers determined that not only do recovered COVID-19 patients possess neutralizing antibodies up to a year after infection, but that such infection simultaneously assists in offering protection against developing variants.
“Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection produces B-cell responses that continue to evolve for at least one year,” the study read. “During that time, memory B cells express increasingly broad and potent antibodies that are resistant to mutations found in variants of concern.”
I cannot think of one case in the history of mankind where man actually improved on nature. In fact without natural immunity, we would not have the manmade vaccines. One area that should concern us all; it seems that when man attempts to improve on nature, inevitably man makes the problem much worse.
Washington University School of Medicine
This study found that natural immunity is long lasting. From the study documents:
Further, 15 of the 19 bone marrow samples from people who had had COVID-19 contained antibody-producing cells specifically targeting the virus that causes COVID-19. Such cells could still be found four months later in the five people who came back to provide a second bone-marrow sample. None of the 11 people who had never had COVID-19 had such antibody-producing cells in their bone marrow.
“People with mild cases of COVID-19 clear the virus from their bodies two to three weeks after infection, so there would be no virus driving an active immune response seven or 11 months after infection,” Ellebedy said. “These cells are not dividing. They are quiescent, just sitting in the bone marrow and secreting antibodies. They have been doing that ever since the infection resolved, and they will continue doing that indefinitely.”
Why are we not Hearing About Natural Immunity?
This is the question of the year! All indications and the real data point to natural immunity being long lasting, possibly life long. We are learning the vaccines were dramatically oversold. I pointed out 3 studies, but there are literally dozens of studies that all say the same thing. In addition we have data from SARS-COVID-1, that is nearly 20 years old, suggesting many of the surviving patients still have immunity.
Throughout the history of pandemics, epidemics and almost all viruses, the immunity system of the human body is what defeated the enemy. Could it be possible that the vaccines are blocking natural immunity and delaying our exit out of this mess?
Best Path to Herd Immunity
One thing we have not talked about is prophylactic treatments, like Regeneron, HCL, Ivermectin and others. All of these treatments have shown promise and many have shown great promise. Again, DuckDuckGo any one of these and look at the study data. It is my opinion that we have not aggressively treated COVID-19 with readily available and very inexpensive drugs.
We have learned that vaccines in their current state only offer short term protection. We have also learned that natural immunity offers much longer term protection. However, what happens if we delay herd immunity so long that natural immunity begins to wear down? Are we missing our herd immunity window? Certainly that possibility exists.
It is time to start taking a smarter approach? Since people under 50 years of age have an enormously high survival rate and under 30, with no co-morbidities, offers a near 100% chance of survival … and herd immunity, if achieved can potentially rid the world of this virus then we should be looking at an all of the above approach. The vaccines can be used as a bridge to herd immunity, but they should not be given to anybody under 30 unless there are underlying conditions that put that person at risk. Any hospitalizations we aggressively attack with prophylactic treatments. Any person in the high risk group can decide if they want to get the vaccine. Then, we let the virus spread among the healthy, until it runs out of places to spread. We immediately lift all restrictions and allow Americans to go on with their lives.
Please withhold the comments about how that is easy for me to say. I tested positive for COVID back around Thanksgiving. I never took a drug, went to the hospital, let alone the ICU or was put on a ventilator. In other words no cost to the tax payer or health system, which is the case with most infections. I am 60 and I prepared through diet and exercise (see my other posts).
Why do we not have a herd immunity scoreboard? Why are we only counting deaths?Let’s start counting lives! Each time a person gets COVID-19 and beats it, we are that much closer to herd immunity. Once the all the above approach is established, you will watch cases fall off the cliff like last December/January before the vaccines arrived in mass.
I want to leave you with this thought: Should we focus on Herd Immunity which is the only hope of these times ever going away and getting our lives back to normal? Or, should we continue down this mandatory vaccine route and assure ourselves that unless the vaccines improve dramatically, COVID-19 and all the restrictions, are here to stay.
It now seems Delta has more adverse efforts in the younger cohort than earlier variants. Pity in earlier days we didn't have a huge three day concerts around the country for thousands to get infected at big parties. They likely would have intermixed disease recovery as handover recovery but then would have acquired immunity from future variants and no longer possible asymptomatic spreaders. This would be Great Barrington at work with the thesis of removing the socially active from the spreader population.
Delta is believed to have a R-naught of 5. (At my age I never encounter 5 people near each other.) With that high R0, we expect rapid growth perhaps moderated by the vaccinated, at the moment. But if the vaccinated only get a milder version they are likely better off than getting a booster. Eventually no matter what, we achieve a degree of immunity to severe variants, as we have through human history. Pity we had to suffer though so many delays caused by shutdowns and pity we couldn't take advantage of therapeutics.
Excellent article. Mild typo in HCL you meant HCQ.